SCC Preview: Johnson to fulfill what he started

There hasn't been a clean sweep of both races at Michigan International Speedway in the same season since Bobby Labonte turned the trick in 1995. He's one of only seven drivers to break out the broom in the same year since the two-mile track came online in 1971. I bring this up because it actually might be good news for Jimmie Johnson.

The three-time defending series champion totally dominated the day when NASCAR's top dogs made their first visit in June. Johnson led four times for 146 of the 200 laps. Only a slight miscalculation on the fuel mileage allowed the Lowes Chevrolet to run out only four miles from the checkered flag, plummeting him from first to 22nd. So my theory is this: If Johnson had won, he'd be trying to buck a trend and trying to do something that hasn't been done in 13 years. As it is, he's free from any bad karma, which might make it easier for him to go out and, again, blow everybody's doors off.

It took Johnson and his crew chief Chad Knaus a little while to "zero in" at California Speedway, the sister track to Michigan, but since they did, it's been one bull's-eye after another. In the past five Fontana races, he's grabbed two wins, four top-5s and five top-10s, and I think he's about to go on that kind of tear in the Irish Hills. It's true Johnson's stats at Michigan aren't great, with just two top-5s and six top-10s in 15 starts. It's also a fact that he and Knaus have never taken it all the way to the house on the two-mile oval. That should have changed in June and didn't. That, in my opinion, put off winning at Michigan just 64 days.

When NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series visits a track for the second time during a season, one would automatically think a driver who performs well at the speedway early in the schedule would produce a repeat performance. That, however, has actually been the case for only a select few at Michigan International Speedway. At the 2-mile Michigan track, that "few" includes Carl Edwards, Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth.

In the past four June races at the Irish Hills track, Edwards has produced a victory and top-10s in the other three. The Missouri native also is the CARFAX 400 defending champion, and he's finished in the top 10 in three of the past four August races. Even though Edwards is winless this year, he possesses the best average finish at Michigan with 6.3. In 10 races, Edwards has completed all of his laps and led 243 of them. Overall, he possesses two victories, six top-5s and nine top-10s at the superspeedway. He also performs well at California Speedway, the circuit's only other 2-mile track that was patterned after Michigan. In the past four California races, Edwards has produced a victory and finished in the top 10 in the other three. Michigan is considered an intermediate track; his performances at other intermediates also bodes well for him possibly acquiring his first victory this season Sunday. He has posted top-10s in three of the four 1.5-mile races this year. The only race in which he failed to notch a top-10 was Chicago in July. His best finish this season on a 1.5-mile track occurred in March at Atlanta where he placed third. He backed that up with a 10th at Texas and a fourth at Charlotte.

Martin has always performed well at the intermediate tracks, and with his return to a full-time schedule this year, he's a victory contender at each event. Besides winning the track's June race, he owns the record for the most lead-lap finishes, 32 in 47 events. He's also tied with Bill Elliott for the most top-10s: 29. Martin's two top-10s in the past four 1.5-mile track races include a victory last month at Chicago. He's also recorded two top-10s in the past four August Michigan events. His overall Michigan record contains five victories, 17 top-5s and 29 top-10s. He's also led 883 laps, completing 92.8 percent of the laps in the 47 races in which he's competed. In points obtained on superspeedways this year, Martin is fourth with 1,905. He also is the series leader in victories with four and is second in poles earned, also four.

Kenseth's Roush Fenway team has always been strong at Michigan, especially in the August event. The Wisconsin native has produced four top-5s in the past four August races at Michigan. That includes a victory in the 2006 race. He also has produced four top-10s, including a victory earlier this year, in the past four events at Michigan's twin track, California. A former teammate of Martin's , Kenseth has led 222 laps in 20 Michigan events completing 96.8 percent of the laps in his starts. He's won two races, posted nine top-5s and 13 top-10s. His average Michigan finish is 9.6.

Also watch out for point leader Tony Stewart, who usually heats up with the weather, and this year is no exception. In the past 10 races, he's recorded three wins, two runner-ups, eight top-5s and 10 top-10s. More importantly, he's averaging 170.5 points per race. He's also earned the most points this year on the superspeedways: 2,130.

Greg Biffle also turns in a strong performance at Michigan in August. In the past four August events, he has three top-10s. His best finish in those events occurred last year when he finished fourth.

Another three drivers whom I think don't necessarily have what it takes to win but will be somewhere near the front when it's over, are Denny Hamlin, who was third in June; seventh-place finisher Kurt Busch; and Brian Vickers, who has top-10s in three straight Michigan races.

A couple of other driver Roush Fenway drivers to keep an eye on are Jamie McMurray and David Ragan. McMurray has finished 10th, 10th and 11th in the past three at Michigan. Ragan has come home 8th, 3rd and 15th, and he is affordable and possibly available. As does Bill Elliott, who should be attractive not only for his outstanding past record on the two-mile track, but for how he ran in June.

Big bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up)

If you have Tony Stewart (25.8) hang on tight because he's clinched a spot in the playoff, so for the next four races he's going to be thinking about one thing: winning races and adding bonus points for the Chase. For most people he's now too expensive to add to their team, so if you have him locked in, keep it that way. … I also like Jimmie Johnson (24.4). … With a value of 22.6, Carl Edwards could be a bargain this week. … Denny Hamlin (23.0) has been rock steady, as has Juan Pablo Montoya (22.4). … Greg Biffle (22.1) should be a decent pick this week as he makes a push to stay in the top 12.

Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 22.0)

In this group, June winner Mark Martin (21.8) leads the way. … Matt Kenseth (21.8) has a successful record at Michigan, but has struggled the past few races. … I think Kyle Busch (21.5) is back on the beam with top-10 potential. … If you need to save a little "money in the middle" look at Brian Vickers (21.2), who could knock out a top-10. … Another guy who's a dark horse for a top-10 but should nail down a top 15 is Jamie McMurray (18.0), and he'll save you some cap space. … A sleeper here could be Clint Bowyer (21.3). He was 10th in June. … After that, no one really leaps off the page. Still, the fast-improving Joey Logano (18.2) might be worth a thought or two, as is David Reutimann (20.2) and Marcos Ambrose (19.4).

Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 19.0)

It's been a crummy year for David Ragan (16.2), but he was 15th in June, and if he matches that finish at such an affordable price, that would be real nice. If he could jump up and equal last year's top-10s, that would be really nice. … Dale Earnhardt Jr. has seen his value drop to 17.3, and he might be attractive because of his 14th a couple of months ago. I actually think that team is performing better now than they were in June, but they must find a way to finish as strong as they run during the race. … Same thing goes for Kevin Harvick (17.6) and Martin Truex Jr. (17.8). … Brad Keselowski (17.6) should also get a little attention. … If you're looking for an even lower price pick that could give you a top-20 or better, you're in luck. Bill Elliott (15.0) is running this race, and as long as he doesn't get into any kind of trouble, he can cruise to a decent finish in the much-improved Wood Brothers Ford.

Debit … not credit

In the top group, I'm concerned about Jeff Gordon (23.7). His August record at Michigan is not great, and his back is hurting from the hard crash at the Glen. Not to mention he's in "tweener" land. Above him I like Stewart and Johnson more. Below, I rate him behind Edwards and Martin. … In the "serious coin" category, I don't feel that great about Matt Kenseth (21.8), despite a nice Michigan record. He's really struggled of late. He's the same value as Mark Martin, so which one of those two would you take? Just below Kenseth is Kyle Busch, and I rate him stronger as well. … Also, Marcos Ambrose was a no-brainer last week, but I'm taking a pass this week.

Guru Garrow's gang

Going into Sunday's chat my team is Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Mark Martin, David Ragan and Bill Elliott.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.